S-CAST notifies you when and where a large earthquake will occur, several days to 10 days in advanceFUJI DR SECURITY Co.,Ltd

Advance forecasting secures time to prepare for earthquakes

Japan experiences about one-fifth of the magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes that occur in the world. Earthquakes in the Japanese archipelago continue without interruption, and a massive earthquake and tsunami are expected to occur in the near future in the Nankai Trough and Tokyo metropolitan area. On that basis, disaster prevention and mitigation measures are being advanced in anticipation. FUJI DR SECURITY's earthquake forecasting information service “S-CAST” predicts massive earthquakes in advance and alerts the target area. The earthquake prediction rate*from June 2018 to May 2019 was apparently about 95%.

This system, created through joint research between the company and multiple universities and research institutes, can predict when and where a large-scale earthquake will occur several days to 10 days in advance. It also warns of predicted earthquakes with regional alert levels. During the period leading up to the earthquake, damage can likely be reduced by taking various advance measures such as temporary shelters and stockpile preparations, evacuation actions, and infrastructure measures.

* Based on earthquake forecasting information verification, the annual average probability when a noticeable earthquake (provisional value) announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency corresponds to the forecast area, forecast period, and forecast level of the company's “S-CAST BCP information”. (June 2018 to May 2019).

Early forecast of earthquakes possible by studying precursors

“S-CAST” has changed its approach from seismology, which studies mechanisms after an earthquake, to Seismo-Electromagnetics, a field that studies the electromagnetic phenomena that are precursors of earthquakes. While conducting joint research with specialized institutions and universities, by combining all seven types of observation methods, including observations of perturbations in the lowest ionosphere (D layer), which was patented in 2015, and the entire ionosphere (F2, F1, E, D layers), it is now possible to observe and analyze precursors of earthquakes.

This system has been developed with the backdrop of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. After the earthquake, they faced a number of unexpected circumstances in the course of providing security services (their core business), and for a time it was difficult to provide services to their customers' satisfaction. At the time, they felt it keenly necessary to take into account potential disasters such as earthquakes for their future security services. However, at that time, even Japan with its state of the art technology did not have adequate earthquake prediction technology. Therefore they started their own research and development. At the beginning of development, the accuracy was low, and there was a lot of criticism regarding the attempt to predict earthquakes. However, as a result of continuing efforts and untiring research, the aforementioned earthquake prediction rate of 95% was achieved. Currently it is needed by various sectors and industries such as local governments, medical institutions, educational institutions, companies, hotels, department stores, etc., with over 1000 users.

Improved accuracy and new functions expected

In recent years, Japan has become more aware that disasters come not just when you forget about them, but at any time. Most Japanese people are aware that large-scale earthquakes involving human and material damage occur practically every year. Although it is impossible to prevent such a large earthquake, it is possible to greatly reduce the damage if information on when and where it will occur is known, and if the appropriate preparations are made in advance.

S-CAST will improve its accuracy even more by adding observation sites and researching new observation methods, as well as adding weather forecast information. Further evolution of the product will enable a further reduction of damage.

Coverage date July 1, 2019